University of Pittsburgh Energy Center Dedication
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania - April 15, 2008
James J. McCaffrey, Senior Vice President - Land & Materials and Supply Chain Management
CONSOL Energy Inc.
Thank you very much.
It is a pleasure to have the opportunity today both to speak at my Alma Mater and to speak about a topic that is near and dear to my heart – energy.
Let me begin first by congratulating Dr Klinzing, Director Gleeson and Associate Director Schaefer as well as the others whose vision it was to create the energy center here at the University of Pittsburgh.
And if you think about it, could there be a more appropriate place to have an energy center? Though many Pennsylvanian’s may not be aware of it, Western Pennsylvania has been the locus of energy development and innovation for nearly three centuries.
From the first mining of the great Pittsburgh coal seam out of the hillside of Mt. Washington in the mid-eighteenth century, to the discovery of oil in Titusville in the 19th century, to the development of nuclear power by Westinghouse in the 20th century, western Pennsylvania has been a leader in energy production, energy utilization, and energy research.
Today, like the confluence of our three rivers, the Pittsburgh region remains a confluence of energy production, utilization and research. Large energy producers like CONSOL Energy and Equitable Gas call Pittsburgh home. The transformers of raw energy like Allegheny Energy, First Energy or Westinghouse Nuclear help meet the region’s need for power. And we have the research institutions -- from the University of Pittsburgh and the other great institutions of higher learning here in our region, to the National Energy Technology Labs of the federal government, to the private research groups that are part of Westinghouse or CONSOL Energy.
The Center for Energy at the University of Pittsburgh should be here because much of the history of energy development in this country is here.
But this Center is not a History Center. It is a Center dedicated to improving energy technology development and sustainability including energy efficiency, advanced materials for demanding energy technologies, carbon management and energy diversification.
These are the challenges we face today – and they are challenges that are huge.
The world uses somewhat more than 450 quardrillion Btus of energy annually. The U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates that by 2030, that number will have risen to 700 quadrillion Btus, an increase of 55 percent.
The sheer size of the demand as well as the project growth in demand is staggering -- but it should not be surprising.
Remember that there are more than 1.5 billion people in the world who do not have electricity. Give them a few light bulbs or an electric cooking plate, as surely we must, and demand for energy will rise.
There are billions of poor people in the world who move from place to place by walking, riding an animal or pedaling a bicycle. But India is about to begin production of a $2000 car. If we give these poor people a cheap car, as surely we will, millions will drive for the first time, consuming more energy.
It is well established that improved standards of health and economic well-being are connected to the increased use of energy. With billions of people in the world struggling to rise above subsistence living, we must recognize that there exists a compelling case for finding and using more energy, as well as the capability to use that energy efficiently and in a manner that manages issues associated with energy use, such as carbon management. Could there be better time for the Center for Energy than now?
Of course, I know that not all believe, as I do, that we can and should continue to grow our use of energy. And there are those who cringe at the prospect of more energy use – particularly from fossil fuels – because of the connection they ascribe to fossil fuel use and global climate change.
Yet, like it or not, more than 80% of the world’s energy comes from the fossil fuels, oil, gas and coal. Moreover, the EIA forecasts show that dependence on fossil fuels will increase over the next twenty years.
The scale of the world’s existing energy systems – on both the demand and supply side – as well as the time required to change them, are underestimated and underappreciated.
We depend on a carbon-based system of energy that has been built over the course of nearly two centuries. It is a system that represents huge investments in technologies and infrastructure that produce, convert and deliver carbon-based energy in useful forms.
When you talk about scale, consider this: the world uses 40,000 gallons of oil PER SECOND. The world consumes more than 5 billion tons of coal per year. And globally, we use more than 9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year.
Do you know what the largest source of NON-fossil energy used in the world today is? It’s biomass, mostly wood and animal dung, used for heating.
Like a large ship at sea, the world will not be able to turn its energy ship very quickly. For the foreseeable future, the world is inextricably tied to fossil fuel consumption.
That said, we should and will develop a diverse portfolio of energy sources. We will certainly continue to develop nuclear and alternative renewable energy sources. The problem is that these sources of energy start from such a low base of contribution that even Herculean efforts to increase production still leave them, by most estimates, with about the same share of the market as they have today because their rate of growth, at best, only keeps pace with the overall growth in demand for energy.
For example, wind power has shown a capacity for expansion. It is estimated that wind generation capacity in the U.S. is up sixfold over the past seven years, from 2.6 gigawatts to 16.8 gigawatts. Last year, 35% of all new power generating capacity was wind.
But…
That amounts to only about 0.7% of total U.S. electricity generation. Solar is less.
Put into a bottle all the wind energy generated in the U.S. last year, make it New York City’s sole source of electricity, and it is enough to run the city for about six months.
Even if wind and solar continue these high growth rates, they can contribute only a small percentage of U.S. electricity in the next few decades. The Energy Information Agency estimates that by 2030, all renewables -- which consist primarily of hydroelectric power, along with wind, solar, geothermal and biomass -- will grow only from 9% to about 11.6% of total U.S. electricity generation. And as a percentage of total U.S. energy demand, renewables share grows from 6% to 8%.
Coal in the U.S., according to the EIA, grows from about 49% of power generation last year to over 55% in 2030. Coal’s contribution to total U.S. energy demand grows from 23% today to 26% in 2030 and to total world energy demand from 25% to 28%.
The inconvenient truth about the world’s energy system is that fossil fuels, including coal, will continue to be a significant part of the energy equation, both here in the United States and around the world, for decades to come.
So it is time that we have a serious conversation about energy, and it is appropriate that the Center for Energy at the University of Pittsburgh lead it.
It is appropriate, because it is clear to me that this institution is all about what we CAN do.
This Center is all about the power of possibilities, not the leash of limitations.
Certainly the path forward for coal is not one of business-as-usual, and anyone here who thinks that is the view I offer is mistaken. We will require the best effort of this Center and others like it so that coal can continue to be the foundational part of the world’s energy portfolio that it needs to be.
In the U.S., Congress is likely to act sooner than later to constrain carbon emissions. And, one of the easiest targets will be the coal-burning electric power plants.
Clearly we need a technological response to the challenge of carbon emissions that will allow us to capture and store CO2.
CONSOL estimates that a sustained R&D effort, funded at a level of $2 to $3 billion per year, would allow the U.S. to develop and to commercially deploy carbon capture and storage within the next 10 to 12 years.
This will give the U.S. technology that can be deployed WORLDWIDE to reduce the global carbon footprint. This is important, because, it is clear to me, that a response to concerns about climate change can only be addressed on a global basis. If fossil fuels are likely to remain the world’s energy source for the foreseeable future; and if those billions of our fellow human beings who now live without electricity, modern transportation or the other things that will lift them out of abject poverty; then we must develop the technologies that allow us to use the energy sources we have in the most efficient and the most environmentally sensitive fashion we can.
That means pressing ahead with efforts to make our existing coal and other fossil fuel systems as efficient and environmentally robust as possible.
We must also press ahead with the development of alternative energy sources such as nuclear, wind, or biomass, that can make immediate contributions to the energy mix. But while diversification of our energy portfolio is desirable, we should ensure that any framework for diversification give proper recognition to the timing of technologic development as well as the economic and social requirements of both developed and developing societies.
Meeting a growing world’s need for energy requires not only finding, producing, transporting and converting energy resources into useful forms, it requires utilization systems that are efficient , sustainable and, with regards to their environmental footprint, minimalist. Those requirements can be met only by engineering systems that deploy advanced technologies. I believe that many of those technologies can be developed here at the Center for Energy.
Thank you.